http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chain_reaction#Effective_neutron_multiplication_factor
I’ve put together a simple excel model. Feel free to play with the figures. (click here to download)
The model doesn’t take into consideration saturation effects or secondary user acquisition from clicks generated by a distributed widget.
Viral benefits of widgets..
- They’re persistent... ie once in place equal effort is required to remove it leading to stability over time.
- They’re centralized enabling version control and forward compatibility.
- Unlike a distributed viral email, a widget is non-memetic and cannot evolve or mutate and won’t blow up in your face. :)
Within the Travel industry, TripAdvisor & WAYN.com are both major nuclear superpowers…
…if you're interested in joining the nuclear arms race you'll need a laboratory
Oh… and it’s probably going to take a number of attempts before you get it right.